The probability that God exists: A Bayesian perspective

Many people are very certain either that God exists or that (s)he does not. This post is based on the premise that, from an empirical perspective, such certainty either way is almost certainly unwarranted, but that a combination of statistical theory and the current state of scientific knowledge can shed substantial light on the probability. After all, there is a rather big difference between an agnostic who thinks there is a 1% chance God exists and one who thinks there is a 99% chance. Obviously, there is no way to calculate a precise probability, but there certainly are ways to establish a likely range. In a nutshell, I will show that, while all the scientific advances in the world cannot disprove God’s existence, the accumulating capacity to explain the world through science substantially diminishes the probability that God exists. Read the rest of this entry »